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I've used the Kodak vs Fujifilm story as a case study. It's a really important example showing how to change....
The course advertised is not cheap but Osterwalder is the originator of the Business Model Canvas which is one of the best analytical tools for the last 20-30 years. Especially for looking at new opportunities. ... See MoreSee Less
While Kodak is struggling; Fujifilm, its old rival, is thriving.
Once rated as one of the world's five most valuable brands. Today Kodak's revenues are only $1.5 billion per year, down from $15.97 bil...
Both Strategic Foresight & #CompetitiveIntelligence are needed - but is there a difference. Does effective #CI lead to strategic foresight or does it work the other way around?
Although this article states that CI is aimed at short-term forecasts & analyses it gets it wrong by suggesting that you first need a broad understanding of the future - and then CI for tactical reasons. This misunderstands CI. CI is not just about competitors but the overall business environment. Only by having a full understanding of the business environment can you have the intelligence needed to anticipate the future - i.e. to gain strategic foresight. Both are needed - and CI is the first step. ... See MoreSee Less
For many people, including professionals, the difference between strategic foresight and competitive intelligence can be confusing. And understandably so. Both are concerned with an organization's env...
When researching #fraud the writing style, signature, logos used and much more can be clues. An often overlooked element is the font used in the forged document.
In Canada recently a fraudster got found out by preparing fraudulent documents using Microsoft's Calibri font, and dating the documents for a time before this font came into use.
Checking the fonts on a PDF document or actual document can give a clue to when it was actually typed - allowing a document to be dated. There are often other clues too. I frequently look for a 4-point type (or smaller) date indicator on brochures commonly used by companies to date such documents. Most would usually miss such clues - but in an investigation they can be crucial in creating a timeline. #OSINT #investigation ... See MoreSee Less
Recently a highly disturbing video emerged of an atrocity - where armed soldiers executed two blindfolded women with their children. BBC Africa investigated to find out where the murders took place and by whom. The initial suspicion that it was Cameroonian soldiers was denied by the Cameroon government. Multi-faceted #OSINT research looking at background details in the video allowed the identification of precise location and approximate date and time and then the individuals responsible who are now about to go on trial.
The example shows the full power of using open sources in investigations - and demonstrates why such research is necessary in today's world. ... See MoreSee Less
How to Detect Fake News in Real-Time. buff.ly/2VtSrDB How it happens, why and how to stop it.
The challenge to stopping #FakeNews isn't technical. It's operational willingness by the tech company leadership. Stopping fake news is down partly to cost, partly belief in the importance of free expression and partly fear of getting it wrong i.e. censoring articles. However it looks like the tide is changing and the tech companies are recognising the moral imperatives for blocking fake #information and are looking at solutions. #Facebook #Google ... See MoreSee Less
For some #OSINT investigations it's better to stay hidden. Here is how - and knowing how can help spot fake profiles too.
There are lots of fake profiles on the web - created for various reasons. Unlike the fake profiles created for investigations, most fakes are not innocent and being able to spot them can be important. This guide gives tips on creating a "sock puppet" - a term used to describe an investigator's false identity. Knowing how to create a good one should also help spot others too. ... See MoreSee Less
We are just starting 2019 and I wonder if it would be possible to create an index of stupidity? Who will be the most stupid people or what will be the most stupid actions taken in 2019. One only needs to look at 2018 for a long list of actions. (Not wishing to be political - but it's hard to avoid - initiating a trade war without thinking about longer term ramifications would be one of them, and the current fall in the stock market is an indicator that suggests that this may be the case. Saying Daesh / ISIS is defeated would be another - when terrorism still occurs globally....)
Stupidity is overlooking or dismissing conspicuously crucial information.
Crucial information is information that you need to pay attention to - that is conspicuous i.e. right in front of you. Yet you overlook it or dismiss it. That is stupid!
What causes this? A magician deliberately misdirects attention - the goal is to make you fail to see something you should have i.e. to make you stupid. Magicians are fun, but fraudsters are not and they do the same thing. Seven factors can lead to such failures: 1) Peer pressure. You don't want to stand out as different. 2) You are outside your comfort-zone so unfamiliar with your surroundings or the environment (or it's changed) so may focus on the wrong thing. 3) Somebody who is or claims to be an expert says something - which may actually be wrong. However as they are the expert you doubt your own wisdom and go with the expert. (You may also be the expert - and reluctant to change a long-held opinion despite new evidence i.e. a reluctance to change) 4) You are in a hurry - so ignore the new information as it will get in the way of what you are rushing for. (You think you are late for a meeting... your phone beeps with a text message saying the meeting is cancelled. Yet as you are in a rush, you ignore reading the message and hurry to the meeting. When you get there to find nobody else is, you check your messages and then you feel really stupid! Especially if the journey was time-consuming). 5) You are really busy so cannot give this crucial information the respect or time it deserves - and so you dismiss it, even when it should be the priority. Perhaps, you need to focus on something else - so only give this crucial information a tangential look and dismiss it. 6) You have too much information so cannot prioritise properly and so miss the crucial information. 7) You are physically or emotionally tired and so make sleep your priority even when it shouldn't be. (Essentially you give up. A predator is about to pounce and although you should run, tiredness prevents it and so you sacrifice yourself, perhaps hoping the predator is also tired. It's why predators chase their prey - they aim to exhaust the prey so they can get dinner).
(Side note: the idea for this - and some of the content came from the Farnam Street Blog which contains excellent posts on how to think - of relevance to anybody working in business, marketing or competitive intelligence). ... See MoreSee Less
Studies generally suggest that, year after year, less than 60 percent of web traffic is human. It's not only search engine bots. There's also real fake material out there: people, metrics, news, businesses, politics, content… according to some researchers, a healthy majority of it is bot. For some of 2013, half of YouTube traffic was bots masquerading as people. buff.ly/2Q0oebu #FakeNews #intelligence ... See MoreSee Less
5 Lessons for Reporting in an Age of Disinformation.
How does #fakenews and #disinformation spread - and what can be done stop it or slow it down. Five tips for all involved in gathering and reporting information... buff.ly/2V9Ocx3 #CompetitiveIntelligence #Strategy #News ... See MoreSee Less
Over six months in late 2017 and early 2018, Facebook detected and suspended some 1.3 billion fake accounts. But an estimated 3 to 4 percent of accounts that remain, or approximately 66 million to 88 million profiles, are also fake but haven’t yet been detected. Likewise, estimates are that 9 to 15 percent of Twitter’s 336 million accounts are fake.
Phony profiles for nonexistent people worm their way into the social networks of real people, where they can spread their falsehoods. But neither social media companies nor technological innovations offer reliable ways to identify and remove social media profiles that don’t represent actual authentic people.
Fake profiles aren’t just on Facebook and Twitter, and they’re targeting people in globally. For example, • In December 2017, German intelligence officials warned that Chinese agents using fake LinkedIn profiles were targeting more than 10,000 German government employees. • In mid-August, the Israeli military reported that Hamas was using fake profiles on Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp to entrap Israeli soldiers into downloading malicious software.
Although social media companies have begun hiring more people and using artificial intelligence to detect fake profiles, that won’t be enough to review every profile in time to stop their misuse.
The problem isn’t actually that people – and algorithms – create fake profiles online. What’s really wrong is that other people fall for them.
Research into why so many users have trouble spotting fake profiles has identified some ways people could get better at identifying phony accounts – and highlights some places technology companies could help. ... See MoreSee Less
Open source intelligence (OSINT) uses publicly available sources to gather intelligence for purposes ranging from basic recruitment checks on an individual to due diligence research for M&A purposes t...
Spies Without Borders - A fascinating account of how the FSB appears to Infiltrate the International Visa System to obtain visas for their spies - bellingcat buff.ly/2PwxhFG A case study on corporate #espionage. #OSINT #Humint.
Lots of breaches of Competitive Intelligence ethics - but then that's one reason why this is espionage and not #CI. The aim was obtaining visas for "dirty deeds" such as the Skripal poisoning. ... See MoreSee Less
One of the unanswered questions lingering after Bellingcat’s unmasking of the identities of suspects in the botched-up poisoning of Sergey and Yulia Skripal, is how two (or, likely, more) undercover...
Research & Critical Thinking in a Post-Fact World. A lecture by Dr Dan Russel of Google on what is truth, what is reality and how do we know what is credible or not.
Some fabulous examples - including fake information from the Library of Congress, and how we aren't teaching critical thinking properly (plus tips on search and more).
Essential viewing - even though it's a 24 minute video. He gives some frightening examples where people accept and assume knowledge that can't be true. If we can't evaluate information properly, how can we tell what is real and what is fake. (One of my favourite examples is of how a US City Council saw the website DHMO.org and believed it so banned DHMO being supplied!)
Unfortunately not all slides clear - but it doesn't matter. It's what Dan Russell says - not his visuals.Research & Critical Thinking in a Post-Fact World Dr. Dan Russell, Uber Tech Lead, Search Quality & User Happiness, Google ... See MoreSee Less
The Untold Story of NotPetya, the Most Devastating Cyberattack in History buff.ly/2o1WsQ5
NonPetya was a computer virus, targeting the Ukraine, which spread globally & caused $millions damage. Unlike other computer viruses, the aim was not ransomware but destruction. Without backups everything was lost. The article gives a case study of a major shipping company that thought it had backups but missed out on a key system they thought was safe. They recovered - through luck - as one node only had not been infected.
The lesson is that anybody can be attacked - intentionally or accidentally - and lack of preparation can be be catastrophic. #cybersecurity ... See MoreSee Less
Going extinct: why corporate giants die - and how to stay alive. buff.ly/2SFgsq2 In the mid-1920s the average lifespan of a top corporation was 90 years. In the 1950s it was 60 years. Today it is 17 years - as corporations die young.
There are 4 stages in the lifespan of a corporation - from start-up to eventual death. Preventing death comes from cultivating mavericks who mirror the company founders. Corporate cultures are insular. Mavericks are unpredictable and zany. They don’t play it safe: They are the backbone of innovation - not the "Chief Innovation Officer" responsible for coming up with tired-done-it-before-plans..
Focusing on What 90% of Businesses Do Now Is a Big Mistake. Just because most competitors do things in a certain way is not a good reason for you to.
Not so many years ago, 90% of lighting came from candles. Not so many years ago, 90% of land transportation involved horses. Only 15-20 years ago, almost all photographs had to be "developed" from camera film and the idea you could take photographs on your phone was not even imagined by over 90% of people.