Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

21 November 2017

Everything we do involves forecasts about the future. In Superforecasting, Tetlock looks at what makes a good forecaster – and shows that the average expert is only slightly better than a layperson guessing what’s next. However there are people who can predict the future with much greater accuracy and in a major project putting government experts against a range of ordinary people, he shows how and why the “ordinary” people achieve better results than professional intelligence analysts.